This year’s round of local elections was already the least important of the four year cycle, with the fewest numbers of councils up for election and most being county councils which have only limited planning involvement, before the government stepped in and made it even less important by postponing many of the county council elections.
The Conservatives were doing very well when these seats were last fought (it was Boris Johnson’s ‘vaccine bounce’), and not under challenge from the radical right. This time they may struggle: we doubt the Conservatives will hold on in Cornwall.
The two Northamptonshire councils may be vulnerable to a shift of Conservative voters to Reform UK, but our tip for a surprise result is Buckinghamshire. Although this has the largest Conservative group of councillors anywhere, they won on a small vote share in 2021 and have been under pressure; they may lose their overall majority.
Labour may be able to regain control in Durham, and possibly do better in Northumberland than it did in 2021. It is having to defend very hard in Doncaster where Reform are making a push.
