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Boundary changes are significant and relevant, including for the property industry

Before next week’s round local elections, let’s take a moment to note an aspect that is often lightly glossed over. Nearly a quarter of all councils having elections on 2 May (five new merged councils, nine unitaries and 42 districts) will be using a new set of ward boundaries.

Boundary changes actually have a lot to do with development issues. The main reason boundaries have to be reviewed is because some wards have grown, and that’s largely down to development: in 1998, Millwall ward in Tower Hamlets, drawn up in the 1970s before Docklands redevelopment began, had grown to have twice as many voters than almost all other wards – and more was on the way.

Ward boundaries have an importance wider than simply electoral. They are often the base for council sevices and others including policing teams, and are used for collection of local statistics and deprivation levels. That can affect planning considerations: anything which involves an assessment of the ‘local area’ could legitimately use the ward of a development site as a proxy for the locality. Electoral issues also come into play: if planning committee members think their decision will affect opinion and electoral balance in a marginal ward, they will pay far more attention than if it is a safe ward (especially one safe for the opposition).

http://localcouncils.co.uk/ is the only website that always reflects current political composition, and we will be updating it to reflect boundary changes for the elections next Thursday.

Boundary reviews can have striking electoral effects, sometimes bringing sudden changes in party control. When South Cambridgeshire went from a safe Conservative council to having a large Liberal Democrat majority in 2018, it was partly down to boundary changes. There are also instances where a full review results in very minor changes that do not change the electoral pattern (as was the case in Cambridge and Watford in 2018).

A temporarily favourable arrangement of boundaries can backfire in the long run. Brent’s current wards were based on Conservative proposals which spread their strength and maximised their chances; things were difficult for Labour but its vote has increased so much since 2010 that it won all but one ward last year. In Bexley, wards used between 2002 and 2014 were based on Labour proposals which helped it win an unexpected majority in 2002 but left it with only two truly safe wards to rely on.

Unlike most states in the US, boundaries in Britain are drawn up by supposedly impartial bodies – in this case the Local Government Boundary Commission for England (LGBCE). But the local political parties do all they can to get favourable arrangements, including trying to get community groups to back their submissions. The LGBCE has tended to prize proposals that produce electoral equality over unequal schemes that preserve community ties.

A complicating factor is that the boundaries have to be drawn up based on the forecast electorate in five years’ time, forecasts which are based on the council’s expectation of development. There is a lot of scope for dispute over the forecasts. Councils also usually draw up their proposals for boundary changes; with the benefit of professional officers, the LGBCE usually uses them as the basis for its draft recommendations. Of course, it is just a coincidence that the electoral impact of the council’s proposals is almost always in favour of the party with a majority on the council.

Bound up with ward boundary reviews are considerations of the total council size. Although the UK has one of the smallest ratio of elected officials to population, the long-term trend is to cut councillor numbers still further. Some councils have gone on a drastic slimming drive: Bexley went from 63 to 45 last year, and the new Richmondshire district will from next week have only 24 councillors, the smallest in England.

Which councils have electorally significant ward boundary changes this time? There are several historic Liberal Democrat/Conservative grudge matches in the South West worth looking at, including Bath and North East Somerset, South Gloucestershire and Torbay. Knife-edge Labour marginal councils with new wards include Cheshire West and Chester, Redcar and Cleveland, Carlisle and Crawley.

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What people say about us…

Smooth operation

Many thanks for last night: a very smooth operation!

Message was very welcome

Was a great result – especially to receive unanimous approval! Many thanks also for you and your team’s work in the run up to the committee. Getting those messages across really helped and was evident by the feedback given by members on both sides of the political spectrum … notably on the successfully engagement with residents and how the scheme responded accordingly. Message was very welcome!

On point

Harry was on point and has been the whole way through. We are all very chuffed. We are already preparing for another rather testing application on another site and you can be certain that we will engage you

Appreciated

Thanks Richard, your help has been much appreciated. Will let you know when the next job comes up!

Big guns!

Thanks for your and the team’s help. It was good to know we had the proverbial big guns in our armoury!

You kept calm

Many thanks for that: your team did very well, and kept a lot calmer than me! Matt was a sensible wise head, as was Alex, but he also made me think succinctly for the questions and how to answer, which is a great skill to try and acquire. Especially for someone as verbose as me!

A unanimous approval

Councillors praised both officers and the developer on their work and engagement.

A unanimous approval 5-0

With your help

Really pleased to hear the news this evening

With your help, we got it through !!!!

Best Regards!

Truly excellent example

Great news that we approved 60 houses on green belt last night.

It was tremendous that the Chair said that this was a “truly excellent example of good consultation…”

Gave me more confidence

Thank you – we were both somewhat surprised given the level of objections but in fact the committee hardly discussed the scheme at all before consenting it.

Thanks to your team for preparing me well for the committee which certainly gave me more confidence.

A big relief

Thank you. A big relief. As I am sure you can appreciate, we are delighted!

Your team did a great job, especially Matt who was integral.

I look forward to catching up soon.

Unanimous

196 flats approved unanimously, thanks to all involved.

Professional and effective

I wanted to thank you and all at Thorncliffe for managing the consultation process so professionally and effectively. This, without doubt, played a crucial role in gaining the approval.

Once again, all our thanks.

Was a good result

Cant remember the last time I got anything through unanimously!

Was a good result, it’s the right scheme for the site and of course we had a great team including yourselves working on it,

First class troops

Richard. Your troops did a first class job as always. Many thanks

Praise for communityUK

Well done for the way you presented tonight’s online consultation. I thought it was an excellent format.

Great result last night

I just wanted to say thank you again for all your help with the great result last night.

You have been tremendous and it is much appreciated.

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