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Will the Tories lose London?

Tuesday’s Evening Standard ran a front page story suggesting the Conservatives will fail badly at the local elections in London.  So what’s the truth?

London borough council elections come around every four years, this year on Thursday 3 May.

Thorncliffe are preparing a detailed scientific borough by borough analysis of the local elections.  You can find out more, order and purchase a tailored version of this analysis here.

For those of you who want just an overview, here’s a little insight:

Lord Hayward, who provided the information to the Standard, predicts that the Tories will lose Barnet to Labour and Kingston to the Lib Dems. He goes on to say that his party will face difficulties holding on to Wandsworth, Westminster, Richmond and Kensington and Chelsea and will likely lose seats in Bexley, Bromley and Hillingdon but should hold on here.

Thorncliffe has polled its own members of staff, all of which are political, for their collective wisdom. This is not a scientific analysis, but most of us are already deeply embedded in local campaigns across the capital and beyond.

The consensus is that overall Labour is expected to make some gains, the number of councils flipping will not be as high as Lord Hayward predicts.

Barnet is judged to be the most likely council to be lost by the Conservatives with 70% of members of staff predicting it will be won by Labour.

Wandsworth is believe to be the second most likely borough to change hands with 45% of staff members of the view that Labour will win here.

Only 27% of staff predict that Kingston Upon Thames will fall to the Lib Dems.

And 9% of staff believe that the Tories will lose Richmond or Hillingdon.

No one at Thorncliffe currently predicts that anyone other than the Conservatives will win Kensington & Chelsea or Westminster or any of the other safely held Tory boroughs such as Bexley and Bromley.

There is unanimous agreement at Thorncliffe that three councils Labour took off the Tories in 2014, Croydon, Hammersmith & Fulham and Redbridge will all stay Labour in May.

However 20% of staff members believe that the Conservatives will take back Harrow off Labour in a result that will go against the London-wide swing. The rest of the currently held Labour boroughs are all expected to stay red, even in Haringey where political infighting and an overall shift to the hard left will not be enough to see any party other than Labour holding that council.

One point to note was that both Labour and Conservative members are more pessimistic of their own party’s chances at the election in May. Not one Labour member is of the opinion that Conservatives will lose Wandsworth while the majority of Tories in the office believe that they will.

This could be a result of Brexit; old political coalitions are giving way to new ones, based less on class and more on outlook. Affluent but metropolitan Conservative voters could be tempted by parties with a stronger ‘Remain’ message while working class Labour voters who voted ‘Leave’ may be being tempted to vote Conservative in May. This would lead to a weaker vote in the two main parties’ strongest areas which could lead to less optimistic predictions.

Over these politically turbulent next four months Thorncliffe can offer a bespoke and comprehensive political analysis of a borough or ward where you may have a development interest.

To order our detailed scientific borough by borough analysis of the local elections, click on the button below.

 

Reader Interactions

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What people say about us…

Smooth operation

Many thanks for last night: a very smooth operation!

Message was very welcome

Was a great result – especially to receive unanimous approval! Many thanks also for you and your team’s work in the run up to the committee. Getting those messages across really helped and was evident by the feedback given by members on both sides of the political spectrum … notably on the successfully engagement with residents and how the scheme responded accordingly. Message was very welcome!

On point

Harry was on point and has been the whole way through. We are all very chuffed. We are already preparing for another rather testing application on another site and you can be certain that we will engage you

Appreciated

Thanks Richard, your help has been much appreciated. Will let you know when the next job comes up!

Big guns!

Thanks for your and the team’s help. It was good to know we had the proverbial big guns in our armoury!

You kept calm

Many thanks for that: your team did very well, and kept a lot calmer than me! Matt was a sensible wise head, as was Alex, but he also made me think succinctly for the questions and how to answer, which is a great skill to try and acquire. Especially for someone as verbose as me!

A unanimous approval

Councillors praised both officers and the developer on their work and engagement.

A unanimous approval 5-0

With your help

Really pleased to hear the news this evening

With your help, we got it through !!!!

Best Regards!

Truly excellent example

Great news that we approved 60 houses on green belt last night.

It was tremendous that the Chair said that this was a “truly excellent example of good consultation…”

Gave me more confidence

Thank you – we were both somewhat surprised given the level of objections but in fact the committee hardly discussed the scheme at all before consenting it.

Thanks to your team for preparing me well for the committee which certainly gave me more confidence.

A big relief

Thank you. A big relief. As I am sure you can appreciate, we are delighted!

Your team did a great job, especially Matt who was integral.

I look forward to catching up soon.

Unanimous

196 flats approved unanimously, thanks to all involved.

Professional and effective

I wanted to thank you and all at Thorncliffe for managing the consultation process so professionally and effectively. This, without doubt, played a crucial role in gaining the approval.

Once again, all our thanks.

Was a good result

Cant remember the last time I got anything through unanimously!

Was a good result, it’s the right scheme for the site and of course we had a great team including yourselves working on it,

First class troops

Richard. Your troops did a first class job as always. Many thanks

Praise for communityUK

Well done for the way you presented tonight’s online consultation. I thought it was an excellent format.

Great result last night

I just wanted to say thank you again for all your help with the great result last night.

You have been tremendous and it is much appreciated.

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